RANGE Forecasting | RANGE Blog - New Topic: The EU's Future Challenges

In combination with several leading European and American universities, RANGE is proud to launch a new strategic topic focused on what’s next for the EU in three key areas: Security & Defense, Technology, and Energy Independence.

Alongside subject matter experts at a roundtable event in March, RANGE facilitated an issue decomposition workshop, which uses a methodological approach to break down how the future will impact a strategic topic, resulting in signals that can be tracked and forecasted.

We have developed a series of questions from the signals you’ll learn about below, several of which we are releasing for forecasting in the leadup to a follow-up conference in June. You can find them under the EU Security, EU Tech, and EU Energy tags, and can check out our further reporting on the topic as we release it on our Blog and elsewhere.

Defense & Security

In light of the Russia-Ukraine war, violent conflicts in the Middle East, ongoing tensions with China, and the specter of a potential US retrenchment from its NATO commitments, the EU’s defense capabilities have become a major topic of debate.

The three possible future scenarios are:

The EU’s overall security declines in the face of increasing external threats, fracturing alliances, and increasing internal dissent
The EU’s overall security maintains the status quo, keeping pace with external threats, but not establishing an edge over its competitors
The EU’s overall security improves through a combination of outpacing or mitigating external threats, strengthening alliances, and presenting a unified front to the rest of the world

We focused our decomposition on 3 key drivers:

Domestic Security Capability: The EU’s domestic capabilities hinge on several direct (military spending, military hardware) and indirect factors (EU member solidarity, economic strength, fiscal & monetary policy). Clearly, increased spending and improved military hardware would increase the EU’s security, while an improving economy and permissive policy environment could enable that spending without incurring massive debts. Unity among member states could help achieve more with less, improving the efficacy of military spending.
Allied Capabilities: The EU’s most important external alliance is NATO; former US president Trump’s rhetoric about NATO has caused concern about the future durability of the alliance, but a shift in his policies or a victory by President Biden could calm nerves. Increased spending by other non-EU NATO allies (the UK, Canada, and others) would also directly improve the EU’s security. Outside NATO, strengthening alliances with Pacific nations in particular could increase security, while improving military interoperability with allies would make for more efficient defense spending.
External Threats: External factors can affect the EU’s security directly (a Russian attack on a NATO member or provocation of a nearby war), or indirectly (increased violence in the Middle East and wars against EU-friendly nations). War between China and Taiwan could hamper the EU’s ability to grow their defensive capabilities through supply chain disruptions for microchips or the resources required to produce chips domestically. Finally, conflict could spread to new frontiers, with potential for the renewed space race to turn violent, opening up new vulnerabilities.

Check out the first three EU Security questions below and have your say:

EU Technological Leadership

As the race to lead the world in Artificial Intelligence has broken out into the public consciousness, nations around the globe have sought to invest in but also regulate developments in AI.

The three possible future scenarios are:

The EU falls behind the global leaders in technology, adapting and adopting more slowly to new technologies and watching other nations shape the future of AI and other tech.
The EU maintains the status quo, keeps pace with other global tech leaders, making key contributions to the space, but not establishing itself as the dominant player in AI.
The EU’s takes the lead in shaping the future of tech through investment and forward-thinking regulations

Based on the inputs from the subject matter experts, we focused our decomposition on 4 key drivers:

Policy: As with data privacy, the EU has an opportunity to lead in AI regulation - though this regulation - and the differences in the EU’s regulations compared to those of the US, China, and others - could act to accelerate or retard their efforts to grow and expand their AI efforts.
Economic Power: The context of a strong economy allows for greater investment in technology, as well as greater sway in setting norms, as corporations will need to follow EU rules to engage with EU customers. A decline in the EU’s economic relevance would similarly result in a deterioration of their technological relevance.
Tech Culture: The ability for the EU to compete in the global technology race is also dependent in part on their ability to adopt and adapt to new technology. Education, tech literacy, and even attitudes towards new technologies will all contribute to whether the EU can push the technological envelope.
Tech Security: New technology means new threats. The foundation of a lot of technological innovation today is the ability to access microchips and their component parts - access to trade with Taiwan and to critical minerals will be ongoing priorities. New technologies also open new vectors of attack, with the potential severity of cyberattacks and disinformation campaigns increasing, with a focus on security possibly slowing innovation.

Check out the first three EU Tech questions below and have your say:

EU Energy Independence

The push to adopt green energy sources, combined with the fallout from the Russo-Ukrainian war has created a period of instability and change for the EU’s energy landscape. Prioritizing immediate domestic energy production has led to both the acceleration of and tension with the green energy community, while re-opening discussions about nuclear power.

The three possible future scenarios are:

The EU becomes more dependent on adversarial nations as their energy needs outpace production and its ability to shift to allied sources.
The EU maintains the status quo, with production keeping pace with demand.
The EU becomes more independent, investing in new and existing technology to outstrip growing demand and successfully sourcing energy from allied nations.

We focused our decomposition on 3 key drivers:

Decreasing usage of adversaries’ energy: Sanctions on the Russian energy sector paired with decreased oil & gas imports and separation from the Russian electricity grid in eastern Europe are the most tangible steps to decreasing reliance on adversarial energy sources.
Domestic energy production: Major investments in technology and funding for renewable energy sources, nuclear power, and even domestic oil & gas production will take time to yield results, but enable the EU to import less energy over time.
Domestic will to achieve independence: Energy regulations emerging from concerns about climate change may slow the EU’s move to domestic energy sources as many of the most immediate options are not green technologies.

Check out the first 3 EU Energy questions below and have your say: