The US has taken initiative to 'broker' the peace deal but they wouldn't do it for free... they would want something in return. That brings us to the rare earth minerals deal, which has a 71% chance of happening before April. Assuming Ukraine agrees to this and in return they get security guarantees, they might agree to the ceasefire. So that would put the chances of this happening at 0.35*0.71 = 24.85%. But this assumes that both the events are independent which is not practical. A better way to look at this (in my opinion):
US Diplomatic Pressure: Trump has initiated talks with Putin, indicating a serious diplomatic push. So, P(US push) ~ 50-60%.
If Ukraine agrees to the rare earth minerals deal, they may secure long term security guarantees. So, P(Ukraine agree | US Push) ~71%.
Russian and Ukrainian military situation (Reuters): According to this article, Russia is in a better situation militarily. P(Russia agrees | U.S. Push & Ukraine Accepts) ~ 30%.
"While Russia appears to be able to sustain the manning of its forces, evidence suggests that Ukraine, which generally kept its casualty figures secret, has suffered a serious drain on its personnel – with many ground units under-strength,"
Using these estimated values, the chances of this happening are: 0.55*0.71*0.3 = 11.71%.
There are other parties involved. The EU (especially France and Germany) will not want a U.S. brokered ceasefire deal that sidelines them and NATO security guarantees might trigger Russian escalation instead of de-escalation. France's president, Macron says 'only Ukrainian President Zelenskiy can negotiate peace for his country.' Reuters
He said "..it is up to the international community, with a specific role for the Europeans, to discuss security guarantees and, more broadly, the security framework for the entire region. That is where we have a role to play."
And, China of course.... it has its own strategic interests in Ukraine (especially concerning grain exports and the Belt and Road Initiative). Perhaps the biggest bottleneck would Russia's willingness to halt hostilities if they feel they have military momentum. Though I think the ceasefire is possible by the end of the year, the chances of full fledged materialization before April 30 seems unlikely.
Going lower than the crowd given the timeline. Some data points from polymarket:
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? - 35% , Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? - 56%, Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? - 69%
The US has taken initiative to 'broker' the peace deal but they wouldn't do it for free... they would want something in return. That brings us to the rare earth minerals deal, which has a 71% chance of happening before April. Assuming Ukraine agrees to this and in return they get security guarantees, they might agree to the ceasefire. So that would put the chances of this happening at 0.35*0.71 = 24.85%. But this assumes that both the events are independent which is not practical. A better way to look at this (in my opinion):
Using these estimated values, the chances of this happening are: 0.55*0.71*0.3 = 11.71%.
There are other parties involved. The EU (especially France and Germany) will not want a U.S. brokered ceasefire deal that sidelines them and NATO security guarantees might trigger Russian escalation instead of de-escalation. France's president, Macron says 'only Ukrainian President Zelenskiy can negotiate peace for his country.' Reuters
And, China of course.... it has its own strategic interests in Ukraine (especially concerning grain exports and the Belt and Road Initiative). Perhaps the biggest bottleneck would Russia's willingness to halt hostilities if they feel they have military momentum. Though I think the ceasefire is possible by the end of the year, the chances of full fledged materialization before April 30 seems unlikely.