What will be China’s growth rate in 2023?
Started
Jul 19, 2023 04:18PM UTC
Closed Dec 31, 2023 05:00AM UTC
Closed Dec 31, 2023 05:00AM UTC
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Context
At the annual meeting of the National People's Congress in Beijing in March 2023, outgoing Chinese Premier Li Keqiang announced that the official growth target for 2023 was to increase gross domestic product (GDP) by “around five percent”.
This growth target is surprisingly imprecise and comparatively modest for the People's Republic, which had double-digit growth rates for decades. But the Chinese economy is deep in crisis and the country's new leadership has echoed the cautious tone. Last year, China reported economic growth of only 3%, falling well short of its annual target of 5.5%.
Resolution Criteria
This question will be resolved according to the Chinese government's official 2023 growth rate data.
Further Reading
Resolution Notes
China's GDP grew 5.2% in 2023, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Less than 4.5 % | 29% | |
| More than or equal to 4.5% but less than 5.0% | 41% | |
| More than or equal to 5.0% but less than 5.5% | 19% | |
| More than or equal to 5.5% but less than 6.0% | 8% | |
| More than or equal to 6.0% but less than 6.5% | 2% | |
| More than or equal to 6.5% | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 15 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 20 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 35 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 48 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
