Will Narendra Modi be re-elected as Prime Minister in India's 2024 parliamentary elections?
Started
Aug 02, 2023 02:44PM UTC
Closed Jun 03, 2024 04:01AM UTC
Closed Jun 03, 2024 04:01AM UTC
Context
India will hold general elections in 2024 to decide which party will form the majority in India's lower house, the "Lok Sabha." A staggering one billion eligible voters in twenty-eight states and three union territories will be allowed to cast their ballots in 2024.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has been the ruling party since 2014 and currently holds 303 of the 543 Lok Sabha seats, giving the party a sole majority of 56%. The second strongest force, but far behind the BJP, is the Congress Party, whose 52 members of parliament hold about 9.6% of all seats. The winning party or coalition appoints one of its deputies as prime minister. However, small regional parties can also play a decisive role if no party obtains a sole majority of more than 50 % and must find alliance partners. A total of 37 parties are currently represented in the Lok Sabha with at least one representative.
Resolution Criteria
This question will resolve positively if major news reporting indicates that Narendra Modi has been re-elected as Prime Minister in India's 2024 parliamentary elections.
Further Reading
Resolution Notes
While Modi's BJP party fell short of a majority in the 2024 election, the NDA, the alliance of parties of which the BJP is the largest, achieved a majority with 290 seats. As such, Modi will remain Prime Minister.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 96.17% | |
| No | 3.83% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 26 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 20 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 100 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 47 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
