Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 U.S. presidential election?

Started Sep 26, 2023 07:29PM UTC
Closed Jul 01, 2024 04:00PM UTC

Context
As the U.S. holds presidential elections in 2024, various candidates are vying for the Republican party’s nomination. Recent polling indicates that Donald Trump is far ahead of his Republican rivals with a 41-point lead over Ron DeSantis. However, there is much uncertainty swirling around a frontrunner with 91 felony indictment charges pending.

Stakeholders across the U.S. and Europe want to know which of these candidates will be facing President Biden next November. The outcome of the Republican primary race will dictate how experts and policymakers around the globe prepare for the upcoming election year.

Resolution Criteria
This question will resolve when major news sources announce the 2024 presidential nominee selected by the Republican Party.

Further Reading
Resolution Notes

Donald Trump is the Republican nominee for president in the 2024 election.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Donald Trump 86%
Ron DeSantis 4%
Mike Pence 0%
Vivek Ramaswamy 1%
Nikki Haley 7%
Tim Scott 0%
Chris Christie 1%
Other 1%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 90
Average for questions older than 6 months: 20
Number of Forecasts 221
Average for questions older than 6 months: 48
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

2.
-0.032467
3.
-0.030482
4.
-0.029772
5.
-0.029349

Consensus Trend

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