Will the Eurozone enter into a recession in 2024?
Started
Oct 25, 2023 04:00PM UTC
Closing Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
Closing Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
Context
Inflation rates in the Eurozone have fallen from a peak of 9.2% at the end of 2022 to 4.3% in 2023, but the high inflation caused the economy to slip into recession in the final quarter of 2022, which carried over into the first three months of 2023. The recession was largely a result of high food and energy prices in Europe due to the war in Ukraine.
Following two quarters of economic decline in 2023, the Eurozone countries started to recover during the summer period, particularly France, Spain and a small improvement in Germany, signaling an end to the Eurozone’s recession. However, the European Commission has decreased its economic forecast for 2024 arguing that inflation is still too high, consumer spending is down and Germany, the largest economy in Europe, is still in a recession.
Resolution Criteria
A recession will be defined in this question as two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth. This question will resolve positively if at any point the most recent data released by the OECD indicates that the Euro area has had two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth.
- A recession involving the fourth quarter of 2023 and the first quarter of 2024 would result in a POSITIVE resolution.
- A recession involving the fourth quarter of 2024 and the first quarter of 2025 would result in a NEGATIVE resolution. (The final data point for resolving the question will be the first estimate of the fourth quarter of 2024).
Further Reading