Will Ukraine be formally invited to join NATO by December 31, 2024?
Closed Dec 31, 2024 05:00AM UTC
Context
Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February of 2022, NATO membership has been a top priority for Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. During the 2023 NATO Summit in Vilnius, Secretary General Stoltenberg announced that the allies have agreed to let Ukraine join NATO and expedite the country’s path to membership by removing the requirement for a Membership Action Plan, yet no formal invitation was extended.
In a speech, Stoltenberg said that NATO will issue a formal invitation when the allies agree and conditions are met, but did not provide specifics on the timeline. Finland and Sweden also applied for NATO membership in 2022 following Russia’s invasion and, so far, only Finland has gained membership, Sweden is still waiting its turn.
According to major news reporting, NATO did not formally invite Ukraine to join NATO as of December 31, 2024.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 8% | |
| No | 92% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 109 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 20 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 193 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 47 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
