Will Ukraine be formally invited to join NATO by December 31, 2024?

Started Oct 25, 2023 04:00PM UTC
Closing Dec 31, 2024 05:00AM UTC
Challenges
Seasons

Context

Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February of 2022, NATO membership has been a top priority for Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. During the 2023 NATO Summit in Vilnius, Secretary General Stoltenberg announced that the allies have agreed to let Ukraine join NATO and expedite the country’s path to membership by removing the requirement for a Membership Action Plan, yet no formal invitation was extended.

In a speech, Stoltenberg said that NATO will issue a formal invitation when the allies agree and conditions are met, but did not provide specifics on the timeline.  Finland and Sweden also applied for NATO membership in 2022 following Russia’s invasion and, so far, only Finland has gained membership, Sweden is still waiting its turn.

Resolution Criteria
This question will resolve positively if NATO announces it has formally invited Ukraine to join the alliance on or before December 31, 2024.

Further Reading
Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week Change in last month
Yes 8.90% -0.15% -0.48% -14.90%
No 91.10% +0.15% +0.48% +14.90%

Sign up or sign in to forecast!

Sign Up Sign In
Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username