What will be the outcome of the 2024 U.S. Senate election?

Started Feb 27, 2024 03:32PM UTC
Closed Nov 06, 2024 07:00AM UTC

Context
In November 2024, U.S. citizens from 33 states will go to the polls to elect their senators for the 119th Congress. Of the 33 Senate seats up for election in 2024, 10 seats are held by Republicans, 20 are held by Democrats and three are held by independents who caucus with Democrats. Following the 2020 general elections, Congress was evenly split with 50 Republican Senators and 50 Democratic Senators, a win for the Democratic party, which only had 47 seats following the 2018 midterms. In the 2022 midterm elections, Democrats took control of the Senate with 51 seats and 49 Republican seats.

Resolution Criteria
The question will be resolved when at least two major news outlets report which party won the most seats in the U.S. Senate following the 2024 U.S. election. In the event that runoff votes are required and will determine the Senate majority, the question will be resolved after the runoff results are announced. 

Further Reading

Question clarification
Issued on 02/28/24 03:30pm
This question will use caucus membership, rather than party membership, to determine the number of Democrats and Republicans in the Senate. For example, Bernie Sanders would be counted as a Democrat because he is in the Democratic caucus despite not being a registered Democrat.
Resolution Notes

The Republican party won enough Senate seats to hold at least 51 after the 2024 election.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Republican majority 79%
Democratic majority 12%
Tie 9%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 35
Average for questions older than 6 months: 20
Number of Forecasts 104
Average for questions older than 6 months: 48
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.215204
2.
-0.165627
3.
-0.156021
4.
-0.149582
5.
-0.143867

Consensus Trend

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