Which party will win the most seats in the 2024 Taiwanese parliamentary elections?
Closed Jan 12, 2024 05:00PM UTC
- 73 members are elected in single-member constituencies by a first-past-the-post system.
- 6 members are elected in multimember constituencies by single nontransferable voting, exclusively for people with indigenous status.
- 34 members are elected by party-list proportional representation voting.
Sixteen political parties submitted party lists to the Central Election Commission, but it is important to point out that in Taiwan’s electoral system only parties that reach the 5% threshold are awarded seats in the parliament through the party lists. Smaller fringe political formations below that threshold are only entitled to the seats they win in the constituencies. The following four parties are currently represented in Parliament: Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), Kuomintang (KMT), Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) and New Power Party (NPP). Polls predict a neck-and-neck race between the DPP and the KMT.
Resolution Criteria
This question will be resolved using major news reporting announcing the results of the Taiwanese parliamentary elections in 2024.
Further Reading
Wikipedia: 2024 Taiwanese legislative election
ASPI: The 2024 Taiwanese Elections: A Primer
Focus Taiwan: DPP likely to lose legislature majority in January polls: Observers
The Kuomintang (KMT) party won the most seats in the 2024 Taiwanese legislative election with 52 seats compared with 51 for the DPP and 8 for the TPP.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) | 44% | |
| Kuomintang (KMT) | 55% | |
| Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) | 0% | |
| New Power Party (NPP) | 0% | |
| Another party | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 12 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 20 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 15 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 48 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | better than average |
