Which state will have the most competitive race in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?
Closed Nov 12, 2024 05:01AM UTC
Context
The outcome of the U.S. presidential elections usually comes down to a few key swing states that carry the winner over the threshold to the 270 votes needed to win in the Electoral College. A political forecast from the University of Virginia's Center for Politics projects that the four toss up states in the 2024 presidential election will be Arizona, Georgia, Wisconsin and Nevada. The first three states were the closest races in the 2020 election. Nevada has voted Democratic in the last four presidential elections but by closer margins each time and is expected to be an important race in 2024.
Biden trails Trump in 2024 US election's key states, polls show
According to the final election results as reported in the New York Times, Wisconsin was the most competitive state in the 2024 presidential election, being decided by a margin of 0.86%.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Arizona | 5% | |
| Wisconsin | 51% | |
| Georgia | 9% | |
| Nevada | 10% | |
| Other | 25% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 22 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 20 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 58 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 47 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
