Context

The outcome of the U.S. presidential elections usually comes down to a few key swing states that carry the winner over the threshold to the 270 votes needed to win in the Electoral College. A political forecast from the University of Virginia's Center for Politics projects that the four toss up states in the 2024 presidential election will be Arizona, Georgia, Wisconsin and Nevada. The first three states were the closest races in the 2020 election. Nevada has voted Democratic in the last four presidential elections but by closer margins each time and is expected to be an important race in 2024.