Will the U.S. Congress pass an economic and/or military aid package of $60 billion or more to support Ukraine that President Joe Biden then signs into law before the U.S. presidential election?
Started
Feb 21, 2024 03:00PM UTC
Closed Apr 23, 2024 09:30PM UTC
Closed Apr 23, 2024 09:30PM UTC
Challenges
Seasons
Context
Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, the United States has by far been the largest donor of military aid and the second largest donor of financial aid to the Ukrainian government, followed by the European Union. While the U.S. Senate has just passed another combined military/financial aid package earmarking $60.1 billion for Ukraine, the Biden Administration is facing mounting resistance by the Republican majority in the U.S. House of Representatives.
Former U.S. President Donald Trump, who is likely to be the Republican candidate in the upcoming presidential election, has been outspoken in his resistance to another aid package for Ukraine. He is attempting to deny President Biden a foreign policy success, which the passing of a Ukraine aid bill would certainly constitute, by using his influence with the Republican House leadership to undermine this legislative effort.
If U.S. funding for Ukraine does not materialize this year, the Ukrainian government’s ability to successfully continue its military engagement with the Russian occupying forces will be severely impaired. The pressure on the European Union and its Member States to compensate for the shortfall will increase dramatically. This will come at a time when the public support in Europe for aid to Ukraine is decreasing and the EU is facing its own parliamentary elections and installment of a new European Commission later this year.
Resolution Criteria
This question will resolve positively if both chambers of the U.S. Congress have passed the same bill containing measures to give military and/or financial aid of $60 billion or more to Ukraine.
Further Reading
Resolution Notes
The U.S. Senate passed a bill providing $61 billion in funding for Ukraine on April 23, 2024.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 57% | |
| No | 43% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 52 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 20 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 60 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 48 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
