Will the next EU Commission include a dedicated Commissioner focused on defense?

Started Mar 01, 2024 09:44PM UTC
Closed Dec 01, 2024 02:00PM UTC
Challenges
Seasons

Context

Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine and former U.S. President Donald Trump’s comments, that should he return to the White House in January 2025, the U.S. might not come to the defense of North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) allies should they be attacked, have pushed European Union leaders to take the EU’s collective defense more seriously. Ursula von der Leyen and other EU leaders have voiced their support to establish a new Commissioner position within the EU Commission, which would focus on defense.


Currently, the matter of defense is not firmly concentrated within one EU position. The EU’s defense competencies are shared among Josep Borrell, the High Representative who heads the European Defence Agency and guides the Union’s Common Foreign and Security Policy, and Internal Market
Commissioner Thierry Breton. The Internal Market portfolio also includes the “Directorate-General Defence Industry and Space”.

Streamlining competencies under one dedicated Commissioner could benefit the EU’s defense aspirations. But questions remain about what such a Commissioner would actually oversee, as defense has usually been handled through the individual Member States and NATO. The new position could also focus more on the industrial sector and building-out production capacity, thereby complementing the structural components of NATO. Member States with larger defense industries, however, have raised concerns over how such proposals could impact already existing cooperation frameworks and industry competition.

Resolution Criteria
This question will be positively resolved if when the new European Council officially appoints the new European Commission (consisting of its President and Commissioners), the new college of Commissioners includes a dedicated Commissioner focused on defense.

Further Reading
Resolution Notes

Former Lithuanian Prime Minister Andrius Kubilius became the EU's first defense and space commissioner on Dec. 1, 2024.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 96%
No 4%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 26
Average for questions older than 6 months: 20
Number of Forecasts 79
Average for questions older than 6 months: 47
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

2.
-0.048912
3.
-0.042108
4.
-0.034211
5.
-0.033712

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