In 2006, NATO defense ministers initially agreed to spend 2% of gross domestic product (GDP) on defense. In response to the 2014 Russian annexation of Crimea, allied leaders formally pledged to reach the 2% guideline over the next decade. Estimates of 2023 military spending indicate that only eleven member states of the 31-member bloc are on track to meet this target: the United States, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Greece, Finland, Romania, Hungary, Slovakia, and the United Kingdom. However, recent statements from NATO suggest that as many as eighteen member states may meet the 2% guideline in 2024.

The 2% defense spending guideline has remained a point of debate and controversy within the alliance. This debate has been especially contentious between the United States, the leading overall contributor to NATO, and larger western European member states that have failed to reach the minimum spending target. Now, as the war in Ukraine continues and the U.S. remains the largest contributor of defensive aid to Ukraine in total terms, the topic of “burden sharing” remains front and center among NATO allies.

The question will resolve based on data from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s 2024 compendium of defense expenditures (expected to be released in 2025) indicating how many NATO member states are spending at least 2% of GDP on defense.