Will the United States leave the Paris Climate Agreement by the end of 2025?

Started Apr 16, 2024 07:48PM UTC
Closed Jan 20, 2025 05:00PM UTC
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Context:
In his first year in office, former President Trump announced the United States' intention of leaving the Paris Climate agreement, citing its potential to damage the US economy and put the US at a competitive disadvantage. President Biden reversed this decision, signing an executive order to re-enter the Paris Climate Agreement immediately upon taking office.

With a Trump-Biden re-match looking likely in the 2024 election, the fate of the United States' participation in the Paris Climate Agreement may once again be on the ballot.

Resolution Criteria:
This question will be resolved positively if, according to major news reporting, the United States gives notice of its intention to withdraw from the Paris Agreement under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change by December 31 2025. Due to the necessary delay between giving notice of an intent to withdraw and official withdrawal, the United States does not need to officially withdraw from the Paris Agreement by Dec 31 2025 for this question to resolve positively. A notice of intention to withdraw, similar to the notice given by the Trump administration on August 4 2017, is sufficient for this question to resolve positively.

Further Reading:

Resolution Notes

President Trump issued an executive order to withdraw the United States from the Paris Climate Agreement.
https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/01/putting-america-first-in-international-environmental-agreements/

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 88%
No 12%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 32
Average for questions older than 6 months: 19
Number of Forecasts 95
Average for questions older than 6 months: 47
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.188144
2.
-0.165268
3.
-0.137069
4.
-0.127519
5.
-0.086929

Consensus Trend

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