Under the leadership of Xi Jinping, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has embarked on an ambitious campaign to project its power into surrounding international bodies of water, most notably the South China Sea. Despite a 2016 ruling by the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague declaring the PRC’s claims unlawful, China has continued to pursue its objectives unabated.

As a result of Beijing’s expansive territorial claims and increasingly aggressive efforts to impose them, tensions between the PRC and the Philippines have escalated significantly in recent months. Confrontations between the Chinese Coast Guard and Maritime Militia and the Philippine Navy have grown in both frequency and severity, with one clash reportedly involving the use of “bladed weapons” by Chinese officers, leading to a furious diplomatic response from Manila. In turn, Beijing has accused the Philippines of violating Chinese sovereignty. These skirmishes have occurred primarily in the disputed Spratley Islands, where Chinese vessels have repeatedly harassed or otherwise interfered with Philippine efforts to resupply maritime outposts.

Thus far, the two sides have avoided the use of live ammunition, relying primarily on ramming, water cannons and threats. However, the steady increase in violence has raised concerns that the confrontation could escalate into a live-fire military conflict in the near future.

This question will resolve positively if a major news outlet such as AP or Reuters reports that the military or other maritime security forces of either the People’s Republic of China or the Philippines has employed live ammunition targeting military or civil assets of the other side by December 31, 2024.