The current German government is a coalition of three parties: the Social Democrats (SPD), the Greens, and the market-liberal Free Democrats (FDP). Over the past two years, internal disputes have frequently arisen within the coalition. Significant conflicts have included disagreements on addressing a €60 billion budget deficit and the constitutionally mandated debt brake, debates over green energy laws impacting citizens and businesses, and differing views on the extent of military support for Ukraine.

Following the June 9 European Parliament elections, the results indicated diminishing support for the governing parties of Germany’s government: 13.9% for the SPD, 11.9% for the Greens, and 5.2% for the FDP, compared to 30% for the Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU) and

15.9% for the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD). As demonstrated by the snap French legislative elections following a significant loss for the governing party (Renaissance), the German electoral results raise doubts about whether the current ruling coalition in Germany will endure until the next

Bundestag election scheduled for fall 2025.

Under German law, there are two main procedures to relieve the Chancellor of his duties. The first option involves the Chancellor requesting a vote of confidence (“Vertrauensfrage”) from Parliament. If the vote fails, meaning an absolute majority does not express confidence, the President consults with all Bundestag factions. Possible outcomes include the Chancellor continuing to govern with a minority, forming a new coalition, or dissolving Parliament and calling a new election.

The second option is a constructive vote of no confidence (“Konstruktives Misstrauensvotum”), initiated by Parliament. In this process, Parliament must simultaneously vote against the current Chancellor and elect a new one with an absolute majority. If successful, the President dismisses the old Chancellor and appoints the newly elected Chancellor. This process was notably successful in 1982 when the FDP left its coalition with the SPD, leading to the election of Helmut Kohl as Chancellor through a new coalition with the conservative CDU/CSU.

The question will be resolved either when the next Bundestag election occurs as scheduled in fall 2025 or if there is a successful constructive vote of no confidence or an unsuccessful vote of confidence beforehand.

In the case of a Vertrauensfrage, a "Yes" resolution would require a majority of votes against the chancellor and for parliament to be dissolved or for the chancellor to be removed from their position.