The African American male demographic has been a reliable source of support for the Democratic Party for decades, with large percentages consistently aligning with the party. However, recent trends indicate that this state of affairs may be shifting.

According to polling conducted in April 2024, roughly 20% of African American men reported that they were considering voting for Donald Trump. Such a figure would represent a significant increase from the 2020 and 2016 elections, when 12% and 14%, of the demographic voted for the Democratic candidate, respectively. This shift in support is particularly pronounced among African American males under the age of 50, with nearly 30% expressing support for Trump. While these polls were conducted prior to Vice President Kamala Harris’ entry into the presidential race, the results suggest that the African American male demographic, though never monolithic, could be more unpredictable than in past elections.

This question will resolve positively if exit polls published by CBS and CNN indicate that African American male support for Donald Trump surpasses 20% in the 2024 U.S presidential election. In the event that CNN and CBS report conflicting figures, an average of the two will be used.