Will Congress certify the results of the 2024 election on January 6, 2025?

Started Sep 10, 2024 01:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 06, 2025 05:01AM UTC
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Context:
The United States Congress is scheduled to convene on January 6, 2025 to certify the results of the 2024 presidential election. During this session, members of both the Senate and the House of Representatives will count and tally electoral votes, after which the president of the Senate will officially announce the outcome.

However, a combination of factors could interfere with this schedule. In 2021, a mob of supporters of President Donald Trump attacked the US Capitol in an effort to halt the certification process. While Congress passed the Electoral Count Reform and Presidential Transition Improvement Act of 2022 to prevent similar chaos in the future, Trump and other Republican figures have continued to cast doubt on the validity of the US electoral system. This could potentially encourage similar efforts to halt or delay the 2025 certification process.

Resolution Criteria:
This question will respond positively if Congress certifies the results of the 2024 U.S. election on January 6, 2025

Further Reading:
Resolution Notes

Congress certified the results of the 2024 election on Jan. 6, 2025.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 100%
No 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 33
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 21
Number of Forecasts 81
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 40
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.000764
2.
-0.000764
3.
-0.000764
4.
-0.000744
5.
-0.000651

Consensus Trend

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