Will the defeated candidate in the U.S. presidential election concede the result within seven days of the election?
Started
Sep 17, 2024 01:00PM UTC
Closed Nov 06, 2024 09:30PM UTC
Closed Nov 06, 2024 09:30PM UTC
Context:
Traditionally, losing candidates in U.S. presidential elections have conceded soon after the results become clear, with the vast majority conceding on election night or on the following day. Prior to the 2020 election, the only exception to this rule in the past century was the 2000 election, when Al Gore conceded only after a controversial Supreme Court decision.
This norm was broken in 2020, when then-President Donald Trump refused to concede to former Vice President Joe Biden, arguing that the election result was fraudulent. In the years since, Trump has consistently denied the results of the election, while simultaneously casting doubt on the validity of the 2024 election. This has raised concerns that he will once again refuse to concede should he lose the election.
Resolution Criteria:
The question will resolve positively if at least two major news outlets, such as AP or Reuters, or the losing candidate announces via press conference or social media their concession of the 2024 election. For clarity, "within 7 days" means by 11:59pm EST on Nov. 12, 2024.
Further Reading:
Resolution Notes
Vice President Kamala Harris conceded the election on Nov. 6, 2024
Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
---|---|---|
Yes | 81% | |
No | 20% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
---|---|
Number of Forecasters | 62 |
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 18 | |
Number of Forecasts | 95 |
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 30 |
Accuracy | |
---|---|
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | better than average |