Since the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the U.S. has provided Ukraine with substantial military support. However, this assistance has come with restrictions, particularly regarding the use of U.S. weaponry to strike targets deep inside Russian territory.

On May 31, 2024, U.S. President Joe Biden issued an update to U.S. policy by allowing Ukraine to use American-supplied weapons to strike Russian forces in the vicinity of Russia’s Kharkiv region. Subsequently, on September 26, 2024, Biden announced that the U.S. would supply Ukraine with the Joint Standoff Weapon (JSOW), a glide bomb with a range of over 60 miles. However, this fell short of Ukraine’s requests, which included long-range U.S. Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) and Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missiles (JASSM). ATACMS can strike targets up to 190 miles away and are better suited for mobile targets, while JASSMs are more plentiful and have stealth capabilities, making them effective against well-defended targets. The decision to provide JSOWs while denying ATACMS and JASSMs reflects the U.S. desire to maintain support for Ukraine’s defense while simultaneously avoiding escalation. Without such systems, however, Ukraine’s ability to strike deep into Russian territory will likely remain limited.

The date of January 19, 2025, is significant because it marks the last day of President Biden’s time in office. Depending on the outcome of the 2024 U.S. presidential election, U.S. policy toward the war in Ukraine could shift significantly. Whether the Biden administration will ease these restrictions before that date depends on multiple factors, including the evolving military situation in Ukraine and internal U.S. political considerations.

This question will resolve positively if the Biden White House makes an announcement that it will allow Ukraine to use U.S.-supplied ATACMS or JASSMs to conduct long-range strikes into Russian territory on or before January 19, 2025.