Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, the United States has been the largest provider of military aid and the second-largest contributor of financial support to the Ukrainian government, with the European Union following closely behind. After months of deadlock in Congress, President Joe Biden signed a sweeping foreign policy bill into law on April 24, 2024, which allocated $61 billion to Ukraine—the largest single aid package since the war began. This was the only aid package passed after the Republican Party gained control of the U.S. House of Representatives in November 2022.

In the wake of President Donald Trump’s victory in the 2024 U.S. election, the future of U.S. aid to Ukraine is unclear. During his campaign for the presidency, Trump and his surrogates were vocally critical of further support for Kyiv, even suggesting halting aid altogether should Ukraine refuse to engage in peace negotiations with Russia. With Republicans in control of the Senate and potentially the House of Representatives, support for Ukraine will likely face unprecedented Congressional headwinds. Nevertheless, Ukraine remains a key priority for many in Congress, making any effort to reduce aid challenging.

If U.S. funding for Ukraine halts next year, the Ukrainian government’s ability to successfully continue its military engagement with the Russian occupying forces will be severely impaired. The pressure on the European Union and its Member States to compensate for the shortfall will increase dramatically.

This question will resolve positively if both chambers of the U.S. Congress have passed the same bill containing measures to give military and/or economic aid to Ukraine that is signed into law by President Trump by July 19, 2025.