How many Starlink satellites will be in orbit on Dec. 31, 2025?
Started
Nov 22, 2024 02:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2026 05:01AM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2026 05:01AM UTC
Challenges
Seasons
Context:
Since May 2019, American telecommunications provider Starlink Services has launched thousands of small satellites into low Earth orbit. These satellites are designed to operate as part of a global internet service constellation, allowing Starlink to provide broadband internet coverage to a growing list of
countries. Notably, this network has seen extensive use during Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, as it has provided Ukrainian forces with the ability to communicate rapidly, even as traditional telecommunications infrastructure has been destroyed.
As of November 2024, there were a total of 6,676 Starlink satellites in orbit, with all but 52 of those in active use. Many of these satellites entered orbit in 2024, with Starlink launching over 30 payloads since January. This pace is unlikely to slow in 2025, as Starlink has announced plans to add thousands more satellites to the network in the coming year, with a long-term goal of reaching a total of up to 42,000. In August 2024, the US Federal Communications Commission gave Starlink approval to expand its network to 12,000 satellites, nearly doubling the current total.
While the number of Starlink satellites in orbit will likely continue to grow in 2025, the constellation will also experience losses in the coming months. As each satellite has an operational life of roughly 5 years, many satellites launched in 2019 and 2020 will be removed from service in the near future. Nevertheless, with few competitors, rising demand and significant support from the US government, Starlink’s growth will continue into 2025.
Resolution Criteria:
This question will be resolved using the number of Starlink satellites in orbit as of Dec. 31, 2025, as reported in Dr. Jonathan McDowell's Starlink Statistics. (If Dr. McDowell's statistics are unavailable or are no longer being updated, alternative sources may be used).
Further Reading:
Possible Answer | Crowd Forecast | Change in last 24 hours |
---|---|---|
Less than 8,000 | 7.25% | -17.75% |
More than or equal to 8,000 but less than 10,000 | 34.06% | +9.06% |
More than or equal to 10,000 but less than 12,000 | 47.15% | +22.15% |
More than or equal to 12,000 | 11.53% | -13.47% |