Will Serbia and Kosovo engage in a lethal armed conflict in the next 6 months? (Scores for forecasts between May 17, 2024 and Jun 17, 2024)
Started
May 17, 2024 05:01AM UTC
Closed Jun 17, 2024 05:01AM UTC
Closed Jun 17, 2024 05:01AM UTC
Context:
After a shootout in Kosovo between ethnic Serbian gunmen and Kosovan forces in September 2023, Serbia deployed thousands of military troops to the Kosovan border. More recently, the United States has made an effort to improve relations between the two countries, but armed conflict remains a possibility.
Resolution Criteria:
This question will resolve positively if, according to major news reporting, the militaries of Serbia and Kosovo engage in an armed conflict that results in at least one military fatality.
Further Reading:
Resolution Notes
Serbia and Kosovo did not engage in a lethal armed conflict during the forecast period.
This question is a resolved time period from Will Serbia and Kosovo engage in a lethal armed conflict in the next 6 months?
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 9% | |
| No | 91% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 11 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 20 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 11 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 48 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
