Will China blockade and/or invade Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between May 17, 2024 and Jun 17, 2024)
Started
May 17, 2024 05:01AM UTC
Closed Jun 17, 2024 05:01AM UTC
Closed Jun 17, 2024 05:01AM UTC
Context:
The leadership of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) in Beijing regards Taiwan, with its 23 million inhabitants, as part of the People's Republic of China. For the CCP, the self-governing island state is a breakaway Chinese province that must be reunited with mainland China. The clear goal of the CCP is therefore the reunification with the democratically governed island, if necessary, by military means.
Chinese President Xi Jinping sees himself as a leader with a historic mission. Reunification with Taiwan is part of this historic mission. And this reunification, as Chinese propaganda repeatedly emphasizes, is at the heart of the "the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation" ordered by Chinese President Xi since 2012.
Since the Russian attack on Ukraine, there has been growing concern that China, too, might proceed against Taiwan with an invasion or a naval blockade.
Resolution Criteria:
This question will resolve positively if AP, Reuters, or the Taipei Times report a Chinese invasion on the main island of Taiwan or a blockade of at least one of Taiwan's seaports or airports.
Further Reading:
Resolution Notes
China did not blockade and/or invade Taiwan during the forecast period.
This question is a resolved time period from Will China blockade and/or invade Taiwan in the next six months?
Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
---|---|---|
Yes | 3% | |
No | 97% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
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Number of Forecasters | 10 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 20 | |
Number of Forecasts | 17 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 48 |
Accuracy | |
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Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |