Context:
On December 16, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz lost a critical vote of confidence, triggering the dissolution of the Bundestag and formalizing the collapse of his three-party coalition. Scholz’s center-left government, in power since 2021, had been plagued with months of intense intra- and inter-party disputes leading up to the vote. As a result, new elections must be held within 60 days of the Bundestag’s dissolution. These snap elections are currently slated for February 23, roughly seven months earlier than originally scheduled.

Since the collapse of the Scholz government, national polls have consistently found Friedrich Merz’s Christian Democratic Union (and their Bavarian counterpart, the Christian Social Union) leading with approximately 30% support. Beyond the CDU/CSU, however, the picture is considerably less clear. As of January 28, polls showed the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) with roughly 20%, Scholz’s Social Democratic Party (SPD) with 16% and the Green Party with 14%.

Given Germany’s coalition-based system of governance, the party that receives the second-most support is able to wield considerable influence. Should current polls prove accurate, the AfD’s performance could put pressure on the CDU/CSU to abandon its long-term prohibitions against cooperating with the far-right party Furthermore, if the Greens and SPD are unable to muster enough votes to partner solely with the CDU/CSU, this could result in yet another unstable three-party coalition, thereby further strengthening the AfD‘s position.

Resolution Criteria:
The question will be resolved using the final results of the 2025 German federal election as reported by the Federal Returning Officer.

Further Reading:
POLITICO Poll of Polls — German Polls, Trends and Election News for Germany | POLITICO
2025 German Election Polls and Prediction Model | The Economist
Germany’s election: who are the key players and what is at stake? | Germany | The Guardian
Federal Elections 2025 Germany | Fondation Robert Schuman
German Conservatives Dip in Survey as Taboo Break on Far-Right Cooperation Looms | Reuters