Context:

In recent years, India’s economy has experienced rapid growth, as technological innovation, economic diversification and a variety of other factors have transformed the nation into one of the world’s largest economies. Despite this overall growth, however, India’s annual GDP growth has proven somewhat inconsistent, as the nation has oscillated between periods of precipitous growth and relative stagnation.

Since 2020, growth rates have been impressive, with GDP growing by 9.7% in 2021, 7% in 2022 and 8.2% in 2023. However, global instability, high prices and meager wage resulted in notably lower growth figures in 2024. As a result, GDP growth fell to 5.4% in the third quarter of 2024 (India’s fiscal year runs from April 1-March 31).

With these challenges in mind, India’s annual Economic Survey, conducted by the Indian Ministry of Finance, projected a growth rate of 6.3-6.8% for fiscal year 2025-26. However, India’s economic growth projections have historically proven to be somewhat optimistic, as growth has generally fallen short of estimates. If the economy posts figures similar to Q3 2024 in Q4 (January-March 2025), this could portend further economic challenges in the fiscal year to come.

Resolution Criteria:

This question will resolve positively if India’s Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation releases figures showing real GDP growth of 6% or more for the fourth quarter of Indian fiscal year 2024-2025 (January-March 2025).

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