Nearly three years after Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine, the conflict has devolved into a brutal war of attrition. Despite continuing international support and numerous battlefield successes, Ukrainian forces are spread increasingly thin, particularly in the wake of their surprise offensive into Russia’s Kursk Oblast in August 2024. For Russia, meanwhile, the conflict has also proven enormously costly. While Russian forces have made incremental gains in recent months, they have continued to suffer catastrophic losses.

As casualties have mounted, international pressure to negotiate a formal ceasefire agreement has steadily grown. This pressure has increased dramatically following the inauguration of President Donald Trump, who has repeatedly claimed that he would bring a swift end to the war. During his first weeks in office, the president has made overtures to both Kyiv and Moscow, including a recent call with Vladimir Putin that Trump characterized as “the start of peace talks”.

Despite calls for peace, both Ukraine and Russia have incentives to continue the war. Even after years of conflict, neither side is satisfied with the current state of affairs, while both are concerned about the realities of post-war existence. As a result, a ceasefire agreement could prove difficult to reach, even as international pressure continues to grow.

Resolution Criteria:
This question will resolve positively if a major news outlet reports that Ukraine and Russia have reached a ceasefire agreement.

Further Reading:
Ukraine Conflict Updates | Institute for the Study of War
After 3 Years of War, More Ukrainians Accept Reality of Likely Ceasefire with Russia, but with Conditions | CBS News
A Rapid Ceasefire in Ukraine Could Lead Donald Trump into a Russian Trap | Chatham House
Why a Peace Deal for Ukraine Could be Harder than Gaza | Vox
Trump Says Putin Agreed to Begin Negotiations to End War in Ukraine | Axios