Will the United States renew nuclear negotiations with Iran by April 30, 2025?

Started Feb 20, 2025 03:00PM UTC
Closed Apr 12, 2025 04:00PM UTC

Context:
For decades, the United States has engaged in sporadic dialogues with Iran aimed at limiting Tehran’s ability to enrich uranium and construct nuclear weapons. These negotiations culminated in 2015 with the signing of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), often referred to as the Iran Nuclear Deal. Under the terms of the agreement, Iran agreed to eliminate a significant portion of its nuclear program and increase its transparency. In return, the United States and its allies agreed to reduce sanctions on the Iranian economy.
In 2018, however, the Trump administration opted to withdraw from the agreement, arguing that it was ineffective and poorly designed. In its place, the U.S. reimposed and expanded preexisting sanctions in an effort to place “maximum pressure” on Iran. By 2019, Tehran had begun enriching uranium beyond the limits agreed upon in the JCPOA, effectively announcing its own disregard for the agreement.
Since his return to office, Donald Trump has announced a return to the “maximum pressure” approach to Iran. At the same time, however, he has made statements in support of negotiating a new nuclear deal with Tehran, even suggesting that these discussions should begin “immediately”. 

Resolution Criteria:
This question will resolve positively if a major news outlet reports that the United States and Iran have re-engaged in nuclear negotiations by April 30, 2025.

Further Reading:
What Is the Iran Nuclear Deal? | Council on Foreign Relations
Saudi Arabia Seeks to Mediate between Trump and Iran on New Nuclear Deal | CNN
Iran’s Alarming Nuclear Dash Will Soon Test Donald Trump | The Economist
Where Does Trump’s Renewed ‘Maximum Pressure’ Leave Any Iran-US Deal? | Al Jazeera

Resolution Notes

The US and Iran held an initial round of nuclear negotiations on Saturday, April 12.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 30%
No 70%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 35
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 19
Number of Forecasts 72
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 31
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-1.780278
2.
-1.366747
3.
-0.785916
4.
-0.768514

Consensus Trend

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