Will Germany officially form a new government by the end of April?
Started
Feb 27, 2025 02:00PM UTC
Closing Apr 30, 2025 04:00AM UTC
Closing Apr 30, 2025 04:00AM UTC
Context:
In the snap federal election held on February 23, 2025, Germany witnessed a significant political shift. The center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU), led by Friedrich Merz, and its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU) secured the largest share with 28.5% of the vote, translating to 208 seats in the Bundestag. The far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) achieved a historic second place, garnering 20.8% of the vote and 152 seats. By contrast, the center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD) experienced a substantial decline, obtaining only 16.4% and 120 seats, marking its worst performance since World War II. The Greens received 11.6% (85 seats), while The Left (Die Linke) saw a resurgence with 8.8% (64 seats). Notably, both the Free Democratic Party (FDP) and the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) failed to surpass the 5% threshold required for parliamentary representation.
Forming a governing coalition requires a minimum of 316 seats in the 630-seat Bundestag. Given the FDP and BSW's absence, the most viable option appears to be a coalition between the CDU/CSU and the SPD, collectively holding 328 seats. Historically, coalition negotiations in Germany can be protracted; for instance, it took 172 days to form a government in 2017 and 73 days in 2021. Germany's political stability is crucial, as it plays a pivotal role in European affairs and transatlantic relations. The return of Donald Trump in the United States adds further urgency to the formation of a stable German government, as Europe may need to reassess its defense strategies and autonomy in response to shifting U.S. foreign policy.
Resolution Criteria:
The question will be resolved if two major media outlets report that the German Bundestag has elected a new chancellor on or before April 30, 2025.
Further Reading:
German Government Coalition Talks between CDU and SPD to Begin, Merz Says | Euronews
Germany Has Voted: What's Next? | Deutsche Welle
Frequently Asked Questions about Forming a Government | German Federal Government
In the snap federal election held on February 23, 2025, Germany witnessed a significant political shift. The center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU), led by Friedrich Merz, and its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU) secured the largest share with 28.5% of the vote, translating to 208 seats in the Bundestag. The far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) achieved a historic second place, garnering 20.8% of the vote and 152 seats. By contrast, the center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD) experienced a substantial decline, obtaining only 16.4% and 120 seats, marking its worst performance since World War II. The Greens received 11.6% (85 seats), while The Left (Die Linke) saw a resurgence with 8.8% (64 seats). Notably, both the Free Democratic Party (FDP) and the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) failed to surpass the 5% threshold required for parliamentary representation.
Forming a governing coalition requires a minimum of 316 seats in the 630-seat Bundestag. Given the FDP and BSW's absence, the most viable option appears to be a coalition between the CDU/CSU and the SPD, collectively holding 328 seats. Historically, coalition negotiations in Germany can be protracted; for instance, it took 172 days to form a government in 2017 and 73 days in 2021. Germany's political stability is crucial, as it plays a pivotal role in European affairs and transatlantic relations. The return of Donald Trump in the United States adds further urgency to the formation of a stable German government, as Europe may need to reassess its defense strategies and autonomy in response to shifting U.S. foreign policy.
Resolution Criteria:
The question will be resolved if two major media outlets report that the German Bundestag has elected a new chancellor on or before April 30, 2025.
Further Reading:
German Government Coalition Talks between CDU and SPD to Begin, Merz Says | Euronews
Germany Has Voted: What's Next? | Deutsche Welle
Frequently Asked Questions about Forming a Government | German Federal Government