Will the United States announce that it will reduce the number of troops stationed in European NATO member states by 15,000 or more by December 31, 2025?

Started Apr 02, 2025 04:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2026 05:01AM UTC
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Context:
Since its establishment in 1949, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) has relied heavily on the United States military. Perhaps the most visible evidence of this fact has been the large numbers of U.S. troops stationed in European NATO member states.

While U.S. troops have been present in Europe for decades, overall numbers have shifted significantly over time. In the late 1950s and early 1960s, the number of troops deployed to Europe reached a peak of over 400,000 active-duty personnel, as fears of a Cold War confrontation surged. With the decline and eventual collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, however, troop numbers steadily decreased, falling below 100,000 by the mid-2000s. By 2013, the number of active-duty troops stationed in Europe had reached 63,000, a post-World War II low.

As of early 2025, the U.S. has roughly 84,000 troops stationed at bases in European NATO member states. However, U.S. President Donald Trump has repeatedly questioned the necessity of providing for European defense, as well as the value of NATO more broadly. While an outright U.S. withdrawal from the alliance appears unlikely in the near-term, it is possible that the Trump administration will significantly reduce overall troop levels in European NATO member states.

Resolution Criteria:
This question will resolve positively if the United States announces by December 31, 2025 that it will reduce the number of active-duty troops stationed in European NATO member states by 15,000 or more.

Further Reading:
Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours
Yes 73.78% +23.78%
No 26.22% -23.78%

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