Will the United States have a higher aggregate growth rate than China in 2022?
Started
Jun 15, 2022 03:02PM UTC
Closed Dec 31, 2022 10:59PM UTC
Closed Dec 31, 2022 10:59PM UTC
Challenges
Seasons
Context:
While the Chinese government set a target of 5.5 % GDP growth at the 2022 National People’s Congress, it also warned of “many more risks and challenges” ahead. After the Covid-19 outbreaks all over China and long-standing lockdowns of cities such as Shanghai, many economists have downgraded their expectation with a median of around 4.5 %.
Predictions for American economic growth settle around 3.7 %. Depending on unfolding developments in China, America could record a higher GDP growth rate for the first time since 1976.
Resolution Criteria:
This question will be resolved via the IMF's 2022 reports on the People's Republic of China and the United States: a U.S. real GDP growth rate higher than China's will resolve this question positively.
Further Reading:
Resolution Notes
The U.S. economy grew by 2.1% in 2022 while the Chinese economy grew by 3.0%.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 14.33% | |
| No | 85.67% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 17 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 20 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 37 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 48 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
