Will Li Qiang be confirmed as China’s new Premier at the National People's Congress annual legislative session in March 2023?
Closed Mar 11, 2023 10:00PM UTC
Context
Li Qiang is considered to be the designated new Chinese prime minister following the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) on October 16, 2022. A close confidant and ally of President Xi Jinping, Li Qiang, was appointed to the Standing Committee of the Politburo at the Congress and is expected to succeed premier Li Keqiang at the annual legislative session in March 2023.
Li Qiang has been the Communist Party secretary of Shanghai since 2017 and has been criticized for his handling of the two-month lockdown of the city in 2022 due to the COVID-19 outbreak. In light of recent protests against the Chinese government's strict zero COVID policy, the question arises whether the National People's Congress (NPC) will actually appoint Li Qiang as premier in 2023.
The NPC is constitutionally the national legislature of the People's Republic of China. However, since opposition parties are banned due to the one-party rule of the CCP, the People's Congress is considered a mere rubber-stamping body for central government or party decisions. Yet, in view of the strong protests against the official COVID-19 policy and the widespread resentment among the Chinese population, observers believe it is possible that the NPC could become an instrument for intra-party opposition to Xi Jinping, for example, by not confirming Li Qiang as premier.
Resolution Criteria
This question will resolve positively if Xinhua, the official state news agency of the People's Republic of China, reports that Li Qiang has been named as the new Chinese premier during the 2023 National People's Congress (NPC), currently scheduled for March, 2023.
Further Reading
Who is Li Qiang, the man poised to become China’s next premier?
Around the Halls: The outcomes of China’s 20th Party Congress
Protests erupt across China in unprecedented challenge to Xi Jinping’s zero-Covid policy
Xi’s Shattered Illusion of Control - Recent Protests Revive a Long Tradition of Chinese Dissent
Protesters win a partial victory as Chinese cities start to loosen Covid controls
Li Qiang became the new Chinese premier on March 11, 2023.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 90.56% | |
| No | 9.44% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 23 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 20 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 43 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 48 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
