The Russia-Ukraine war has been ongoing since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022. Ukraine’s military has had significant momentum this past fall, pushing Russia out of the northeast and southern parts of the country. As of November 2022, Ukraine has reclaimed 54% of the land Russia has captured since the war started. Russia controls almost 20% of Ukraine, including parts of the Donetsk and Luhansk Provinces and Crimea, annexed in 2014. Radio Free Europe has a live map monitoring Ukraine’s territorial control.

In October of 2022, there were calls from the west to pursue a ceasefire in Ukraine, but these calls were criticized due to the timing. Given Ukraine’s military momentum, a ceasefire at that time would have only benefitted Russia. Ukraine has clearly stated that it will not agree to a ceasefire deal that involves handing over territory to Russia and that the war will end with the complete restoration of Ukraine’s territorial integrity and sovereignty.

On January 17, Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu announced that he will implement President Putin’s directive to conduct large-scale military reforms between 2023-2026 to expand Russia’s conventional armed forces, likely in preparation for a protracted war in Ukraine. Meanwhile, NATO members are paving the way for Ukraine’s success by investing billions of dollars in weapons, equipment, and training. Since the war started, the U.S. has spent $18.5 billion, Germany, the UK and Poland a combined $6 billion.

This question will resolve positively if the Associated Press announces that Ukraine and Russia have agreed to mutual ceasefire by February 28, 2023.

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