When will President Joe Biden announce his 2024 reelection bid?
Started
Feb 06, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closed Apr 25, 2023 01:00PM UTC
Closed Apr 25, 2023 01:00PM UTC
Context
U.S. President Joe Biden has previously stated he will run for reelection in 2024, but has yet to officially announce his candidacy. While historically most sitting presidents have chosen to run for reelection, Biden's age has caused some concern. He is the oldest American president to be sworn in and would be 86 by the end of his second term. Another factor is the recent news about classified documents found at Biden's private office and later his residence in Delaware dating back to his time as Vice President, which complicates his reelection bid. Attorney General Merrick Garland appointed a special counsel to investigate the president’s handling of the classified documents, giving him the same treatment as Donald Trump when classified documents were found at his residence in Mar-a-Lago.
Resolution Criteria
This question will resolve positively if AP or Reuters report that Joe Biden has officially announced his candidacy for reelection in 2024. The exact date will be determined using Eastern Time (ET).
Further Reading
Resolution Notes
President Biden announced the launch of his re-election campaign on April 25th.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Before February 13, 2023 | 0% | |
| Between February 13 and February 28, 2023 | 2% | |
| Between March 1 and March 17, 2023 | 7% | |
| On or after March 18, 2023 | 81% | |
| Biden will not run for reelection in 2024 | 9% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 46 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 20 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 147 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 48 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
