On April 2, voters in Finland will choose 200 new members of parliament to represent them and shape the next four years. As a result of the COVID pandemic and the war in Ukraine, Prime Minister Sanna Marin’s government has been facing an energy crisis, surging inflation raising the cost of living, as well as concerns from voters over the state debt, climate, and educational decline.

From a geopolitical perspective, this will be a pivotal election since it is taking place against the backdrop of Finland’s accession to NATO. Finland has historically taken a neutral stance in great power conflicts and refrained from joining NATO, though membership has been an ongoing discussion since the Cold War given Finland’s complicated relationship with Russia.

Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 public opinion quickly changed and by May 2022, Finland, along with Sweden, was officially applying for NATO membership. In July 2022, NATO signed the accession protocol for Finland to join the alliance, but there must be unanimous agreement among the allies and two countries are currently blocking NATO’s expansion: Turkey and Hungary.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will not agree to Finland and Sweden’s accession to NATO on the basis that both countries are harboring militants from the Kurdistan Workers Party, a designated terror group in Turkey. This is the official statement from Turkey; however, the real reason is likely the country’s close economic ties with Russia. Vladimir Putin does not want its 1340-kilometer border with Finland to become a new NATO-Russia border and Turkey is not in a position to antagonize Russia.

As for Hungary, Prime Minister Orban says he is personally in favor of the two countries joining NATO but claims Finland and Sweden have spread lies about Hungary, raising questions among lawmakers in his party on whether to approve the accession.

This question will resolve when AP or Reuters announce which party in Finland has won the most seats following the general election on April 2, 2023.