Will 12 or more federal AI-related bills be passed into law in the U.S. in 2023?

Started Jun 14, 2023 06:33PM UTC
Closed Dec 31, 2023 05:00AM UTC
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Seasons

Context
Policymakers at the federal level have been paying closer attention to the development and rollout of AI in the last five years, even more so in recent months with OpenAI’s launch of ChatGPT, a product that took the tech world by storm. 88 AI-related federal bills were proposed in 2022 and 134 bills in 2021, compared to a single bill in 2016. Although the number of AI-related bills proposed in 2022 decreased from 2021, there was a sharp increase in bills passed into law from 3 to 9 bills. 

Following the Senate hearing with OpenAI's CEO, Sam Altman, where he called on Congress to regulate AI, there is increased pressure on U.S. lawmakers to take regulatory action to protect citizens. However, there are those who argue that the government should not rush to regulate a technology that is still in its infancy as too much regulation will stifle innovation.

Resolution Criteria
This question will resolve positively if Stanford University’s 2024 AI Index report indicates that 12 or more federal AI-related bills were passed into law in the U.S. in 2023.

Further Reading
Resolution Notes

The U.S. passed one federal AI bill into law in 2023 (see page 378).

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 2.17%
No 97.83%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 17
Average for questions older than 6 months: 20
Number of Forecasts 56
Average for questions older than 6 months: 48
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.283676
2.
-0.268835
3.
-0.035044
4.
-0.002672
5.
-0.002351

Consensus Trend

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