Will Türkiye withdraw its objection to Sweden’s accession to NATO by July 31, 2023?
Started
Jun 20, 2023 06:44PM UTC
Closed Jul 12, 2023 04:00PM UTC
Closed Jul 12, 2023 04:00PM UTC
Challenges
Seasons
Context
Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Sweden and Finland applied for NATO membership in May 2022. While Finland became the 31st member of NATO in April 2023, Sweden’s accession has not yet come to fruition. The Turkish government has opposed Sweden’s bid, citing concerns about Stockholm being too lenient with terrorist organizations, particularly the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). Ankara additionally requested that the U.S. sells it F-16 fighter jets but the $20 billion package requires congressional approval. The White House has explicitly linked the issue of Sweden’s NATO accession to Türkiye’s desire to overhaul its F-16 fleet. Sweden’s accession to NATO will be discussed at the alliance’s upcoming annual summit, held in Lithuania on July 11-12. Hoping to sway Ankara to reverse its opposition to Swedish accession, Sweden passed a new anti-terror legislation effective as of June 1, which makes it illegal to participate, finance, recruit for and publicly encourage a terrorist organization. Sweden’s foreign minister, Tobias Billström, argued that the new law should pave the way to overcome Türkiye’s veto. Turkish president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, played down Sweden’s expectations in a statement on June 14, commenting that the country has not yet won Ankara’s support to be able to expect a breakthrough before the July summit.
Resolution Criteria
This question will resolve positively if AP or Reuters reports that the Turkish government has officially lifted its objection to Sweden’s accession to NATO on or before July 31, 2023.
Further Reading
Question clarification
Issued on 07/12/23 04:11pm
On July 10, NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg stated that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan agreed to support Sweden’s bid to join NATO. For the question to resolve positively, the resolution criteria require that “the Turkish government has officially lifted its objection to Sweden’s accession to NATO” - as such, the NATO chief's statement is not sufficient for the resolution of this question. This question will resolve positively if the Turkish government, or Turkish President Erdoğan himself, makes a direct statement that they no longer object to Sweden joining NATO, on or before July 31, 2023. The ratification of Sweden’s bid to join NATO by Turkey's parliament would be sufficient to resolve the question, but would not be necessary if a public statement is made.
On July 10, NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg stated that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan agreed to support Sweden’s bid to join NATO. For the question to resolve positively, the resolution criteria require that “the Turkish government has officially lifted its objection to Sweden’s accession to NATO” - as such, the NATO chief's statement is not sufficient for the resolution of this question. This question will resolve positively if the Turkish government, or Turkish President Erdoğan himself, makes a direct statement that they no longer object to Sweden joining NATO, on or before July 31, 2023. The ratification of Sweden’s bid to join NATO by Turkey's parliament would be sufficient to resolve the question, but would not be necessary if a public statement is made.
Resolution Notes
On July 12, Turkish President Erdogan stated Turkey was moving forward with approving Sweden's accession to NATO, with parliament due to vote on the issue in October
Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
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Yes | 75.00% | |
No | 25.00% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
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Number of Forecasters | 16 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 20 | |
Number of Forecasts | 34 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 48 |
Accuracy | |
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Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |