The Russia-Ukraine war has been ongoing since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022. In recent developments, the breach in the Nova Kakhovka dam caused severe flooding in southwest Ukraine affecting over eighty thousand people. Ukraine accuses Russia of causing the dam’s collapse to prevent a southeastern offensive, while Russia accuses Ukraine of carrying out the attack to deprive Crimea of water. In June 2023, Ukraine launched a counteroffensive around the area of Bakhmut.

Meanwhile, NATO members are paving the way for Ukraine’s success by investing billions of dollars in weapons, equipment, and training. Since the war started, the U.S. has spent more than 75 billion dollars in assistance to Ukraine and the European Union a total of 37.8 billion euros. On June 20, the EU president announced that the bloc will provide Ukraine 50 billion euros in aid for the 2024-2027 period.

This question will resolve positively if, according to major news reporting, Ukraine and Russia have agreed to a mutual ceasefire by December 31, 2023. The ceasefire must apply to all contested territory and not be limited to a single location or theatre of the war. The ceasefire does not need to begin in force by December 31, 2023, for this question to resolve positively.

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