Will the Bharatiya Janata Party maintain a majority of seats in India’s 2024 parliamentary election?
Started
Aug 02, 2023 02:44PM UTC
Closed Jun 03, 2024 04:01AM UTC
Closed Jun 03, 2024 04:01AM UTC
Context
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has been the ruling political party in India since 2014 under the leadership of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Following the Lok Sabha elections in 2019, the BJP won 303 seats and received 37.4% of the vote, the highest vote share by a political party since the 1989 elections. The country will again hold general elections in the spring of 2024. Though analysts predict Modi will win re-election, a BJP absolute majority is not a foregone conclusion.
Resolution Criteria
This question will resolve positively if AP or Reuters reports that the Bharatiya Janata Party (not the coalition) has maintained a majority of seats in the Lok Sabha following the 2024 parliamentary elections in India.
Further Reading
Question clarification
Issued on 02/12/24 09:54pm
A majority in this case is 272 seats (there are 543 seats total). The Bharatiya Janata Party itself (not in combination with its coalition) must win at least 272 seats for the question to resolve positively.
A majority in this case is 272 seats (there are 543 seats total). The Bharatiya Janata Party itself (not in combination with its coalition) must win at least 272 seats for the question to resolve positively.
Resolution Notes
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) fell short of a majority, losing 63 seats to finish at 240.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 87.06% | |
| No | 12.94% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 23 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 20 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 91 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 48 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | better than average |
