US Election Tournament

Overview

RANGE forecasts the outcome of key factors that will influence the transatlantic relationship between the U.S. and EU. We’re hosting a tournament forecasting the most important variable in the 2024 US election.

The tournament will begin September 4th and will continue until all questions have resolved.

How It Will Work

• Tournament participants must forecast on at least 4 of the 5 tournament questions.

• Scoring will be completed through RANGE and use our relative brier scoring system.

• The tournament is open to all members of the public.

• The prizes will be based on your forecasting score:
  

  • 1st Place: $500
  • 2nd Place: $250
  • 3rd Place: $100

• Any forecasters found to have used bot / automated accounts to participate in the tournament will be disqualified.

More About RANGE

RANGE is short for Rethinking Assumptions in a New Geostrategic Environment. The forecasts, crowdsourced from a community of transatlantic experts, experienced policymakers, and the informed public, are being curated by RANGE as a new source of input for analysis, publications, and elevating the public discourse. RANGE is a key part of the Bertelsmann Foundation & Bertelsmann Stiftung’s work to bring accurate, credible and forward-looking insights to governments and the public on both sides of the Atlantic.

RANGE operates with a 3-step lifecycle:

1. We ask forecast questions that will help predict the outcome of pivotal trends central to transnational policy concerns.

2. You use your experience to make probabilistic forecasts (0-100%) and help produce the "consensus" crowd forecast.

3. Bertelsmann Foundation & Stiftung use interactive dashboards and reports generated from your forecasts to inform their analysis. 

Note about tournaments: Participating in a team tournament is completely voluntary. If you choose to participate, you may need to identify yourself by sharing personal information off the platform, including your email address, with your teammates and/or the RANGE team. If you do not feel comfortable providing this information, you do not need to participate. RANGE reserves the right to modify any tournament guidelines and rules.