RANGE Forecasting

Question

Crowd Forecast

Will U.S. President Joe Biden lift restrictions on Ukraine’s ability to use long-range U.S. weapons systems to conduct strikes into Russian territory by January 19, 2025?

Closing Jan 20, 2025 05:01AM UTC · 4 · 4

50%

Chance

Will Russia control more than 45,000 square miles (116,000 square kilometers) of Ukraine by July 31, 2025?

Closing Aug 01, 2025 04:01AM UTC · 16 · 24

37%

Chance

Will the Baltic states decouple from the Russian power grid by Feb 28 2025?

Closing Mar 01, 2025 05:01AM UTC · 13 · 37

88%

Chance

Will China blockade and/or invade Taiwan in the next six months?

Closing Jan 01, 2025 05:01AM UTC · 18 · 56

1%

Chance

Will Serbia and Kosovo engage in a lethal armed conflict in the next 6 months?

Closing Jan 01, 2025 05:01AM UTC · 16 · 30

3%

Chance

Will Russian control of Ukrainian territory decrease in 2024?

Closing Jan 01, 2025 05:01AM UTC · 14 · 40

9%

Chance

How many NATO member states will meet the 2% defense spending target in 2024?

Closing Jan 01, 2025 05:01AM UTC · 11 · 24

Will the next EU Commission include a dedicated Commissioner focused on defense?

Closing Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC · 26 · 75

93%

Chance

Will an EU Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP) decision be reached through the process of Qualified Majority Voting (QMV) by December 31st, 2025?

Closing Dec 31, 2025 05:00AM UTC · 49 · 61

45%

Chance

Will Ukraine be formally invited to join NATO by December 31, 2024?

Closing Dec 31, 2024 05:00AM UTC · 102 · 169

9%

Chance

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Will U.S. President Joe Biden lift restrictions on Ukraine’s ability to use long-range U.S. weapons systems to conduct strikes into Russian territory by January 19, 2025?

50%

Will Russia control more than 45,000 square miles (116,000 square kilometers) of Ukraine by July 31, 2025?

37%

Will the Baltic states decouple from the Russian power grid by Feb 28 2025?

88%

Will China blockade and/or invade Taiwan in the next six months?

1%

Will Serbia and Kosovo engage in a lethal armed conflict in the next 6 months?

3%

Will Russian control of Ukrainian territory decrease in 2024?

9%

How many NATO member states will meet the 2% defense spending target in 2024?

Will the next EU Commission include a dedicated Commissioner focused on defense?

93%

Will an EU Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP) decision be reached through the process of Qualified Majority Voting (QMV) by December 31st, 2025?

45%

Will Ukraine be formally invited to join NATO by December 31, 2024?

9%

Status

Type

Season

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Challenges

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50%

37%

88%

1%

3%

9%

93%

45%

9%