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Geopolitics

How will the latest developments in geopolitics drive the EU-US relationship?

Watch Now: Geopolitics

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Crowd Forecast

Will the U.S. Congress pass an economic and/or a military aid package to support Ukraine that the U.S. President then signs into law by July 19, 2025?

Closing Jul 19, 2025 04:01AM UTC · 15 · 15

9%

Chance

Will Russia control more than 45,000 square miles (116,000 square kilometers) of Ukraine by July 31, 2025?

Closing Aug 01, 2025 04:01AM UTC · 16 · 24

37%

Chance

Will the Baltic states decouple from the Russian power grid by Feb 28 2025?

Closing Mar 01, 2025 05:01AM UTC · 13 · 39

93%

Chance

Will China blockade and/or invade Taiwan in the next six months?

Closing Jan 01, 2025 05:01AM UTC · 20 · 62

1%

Chance

Will Serbia and Kosovo engage in a lethal armed conflict in the next 6 months?

Closing Jan 01, 2025 05:01AM UTC · 17 · 31

3%

Chance

Will Russian control of Ukrainian territory decrease in 2024?

Closing Jan 01, 2025 05:01AM UTC · 15 · 44

7%

Chance

How many NATO member states will meet the 2% defense spending target in 2024?

Closing Jan 01, 2025 05:01AM UTC · 11 · 26

Will the next EU Commission include a dedicated Commissioner focused on defense?

Closing Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC · 26 · 78

96%

Chance

Will an EU Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP) decision be reached through the process of Qualified Majority Voting (QMV) by December 31st, 2025?

Closing Dec 31, 2025 05:00AM UTC · 49 · 61

45%

Chance

Will Ukraine be formally invited to join NATO by December 31, 2024?

Closing Dec 31, 2024 05:00AM UTC · 102 · 177

9%

Chance